NATO Warns of Heavy Losses in Potential Russia Conflict

A senior Ukrainian officer has warned that NATO would likely suffer heavier combat losses than Ukraine in a potential war with Russia. The rise of drone warfare has turned the front line into a kill zone, making it nearly impossible to evacuate wounded troops within the critical golden hour. According to Ukrainian Col. Valerii Vyshnivskyi, the battlefield is now 100% visible, forcing soldiers to wait for poor weather to evacuate casualties.

NATO is actively seeking solutions to this challenge, recently hosting an Innovation Challenge in London where companies from 20 nations presented ideas ranging from portable kidney treatment systems to secure communications for medics. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia could be ready to use military force against the alliance within five years, resulting in extreme losses. The alliance is looking to commercial off-the-shelf products to speed up procurement and keep pace with rapidly evolving battlefield technology.

The traditional concept of the golden hour—the critical first 60 minutes after a severe injury where access to medical care may determine life or death—has become obsolete in modern drone warfare. Ukrainian Col. Valerii Vyshnivskyi, the country's senior representative to the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis Training and Education Centre (JATEC), stated bluntly that the concept is found only in books.

"It does not exist," Vyshnivskyi said. "Now, there's only a golden day or month."

The saturation of drones above the battlefield has created a situation where medical evacuation cannot be done in the old way. The sky is filled with drones executing both reconnaissance and strike missions, making the front line visible 100% of the time. This constant surveillance means Ukrainian forces often have to wait for unfavorable weather conditions and poor visibility to evacuate casualties.

Some solutions, such as ground robots, are becoming more popular for evacuation purposes. However, these systems face significant challenges:

• They are vulnerable to attack
• They frequently break down
• They are susceptible to electronic jamming

Western leaders are increasingly concerned that the carnage currently unfolding in Ukraine could expand deeper into Europe. Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, issued a stark warning in a speech last month regarding the timeline of potential conflict.

"Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years," Rutte said, adding that such a conflict would result in extreme losses.

According to Vyshnivskyi, NATO forces would likely face the same casualty evacuation issues that Ukraine is dealing with, but the military alliance would probably suffer heavier combat losses. He believes a war between NATO and Russia has the potential to be significantly more destructive than the current conflict.

Current casualty estimates highlight the scale of the ongoing war:

• Ukraine: Estimated 400,000 casualties, including up to 100,000 troops killed
• Russia: Likely more than 1.1 million casualties since the 2022 invasion, losing over 1,000 troops per day

Rutte emphasized the proximity of the threat, stating, "Conflict is at our door. Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured."

NATO is becoming increasingly aware of the threat drones pose to the treatment and evacuation of wounded troops. The alliance is working to source solutions from medical and defense industries to save lives on a drone-infested battlefield.

Recently, an Innovation Challenge hosted by NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) and JATEC in London showcased potential solutions. Companies from 20 nations submitted 175 applications. Ten finalists presented ideas including:

• A portable system to treat kidney failure
• A jury-rigged stretcher design for evacuation over rough terrain
• A secure communications portal for medics
• Ballistic plates for makeshift shelter

British Army Col. Niall Aye Maung, the medical branch head for NATO's ACT, referred to these ideas as a system of systems. He explained that there is no single solution for battlefield casualty treatment; instead, the innovations would function together to overhaul the NATO medical system.

ACT officials are examining how to overhaul the NATO medical system to meet the demands of a large-scale war, turning to Ukraine's experience to find medical solutions.

One of NATO's biggest problems, according to Vyshnivskyi, is that building new capabilities takes far too long—much slower than the battlefield is changing. The research and development process for medical gear is often lengthy due to regulatory and legal processes required to ensure safety.

To address this, NATO is exploring quicker procurement methods. Col. Maung noted that most solutions the alliance is looking for are commercial off-the-shelf products with dual-use applications in both civilian and military settings. This approach can significantly speed up procurement timelines.

Quicker procurement is something NATO is exploring well beyond medical capabilities as allies look to keep pace with the evolution of war technology. Drones and other emerging technologies are at the center of these efforts.

Bart Hollants, NATO's innovation broker, highlighted the need for speed: "If we want to react and innovate at speed, we have to accept and respect that the speed of innovation in commercial markets and civilian markets is a lot faster than in traditional military markets."

As the war continues, European militaries are buying up weapons and strengthening their defenses, particularly nations along NATO's Eastern flank that border Russia, preparing for the possibility of a larger war.