MSCI Decision on Bitcoin Treasury Companies Looms

Index provider MSCI is preparing to announce a pivotal decision on January 15, 2026, regarding the inclusion of companies holding substantial Bitcoin reserves in its global investment indexes. The proposal, initially issued on October 10, 2025, seeks to exclude firms where digital assets constitute 50% or more of their total assets. This move targets companies that MSCI classifies as operating more like funds than traditional operating businesses.

The potential implementation of this exclusion has drawn significant attention due to the massive financial scale involved. Estimates suggest that enforcing the proposal could result in forced selling ranging from $10 billion to $15 billion over the course of a year. The decision holds weight because MSCI indexes serve as benchmarks for over $18.3 trillion in assets globally. The outcome will likely determine the future trajectory of corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies and how traditional Wall Street institutions view digital assets on balance sheets.

The controversy began when MSCI issued a consultation proposal to alter its Global Investable Market Indexes. The core of the proposal is the exclusion of companies that hold 50% or more of their assets in digital assets, specifically naming Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The rationale provided is that such entities do not function as traditional operating companies but rather resemble investment funds. The proposal specifically named 39 companies, including prominent Bitcoin holders like Strategy and Metaplanet.

Market reaction to the initial announcement in October 2025 was immediate and severe. Bitcoin experienced a sharp intraday plunge of approximately $12,000 on the day of the news, marking the beginning of a broader price correction. In late November 2025, analysts from JPMorgan released a report highlighting the potential risks, estimating that Strategy alone could face $2.8 billion in outflows. They further estimated that if other index providers followed MSCI's lead, the total could rise to $8.8 billion. This analysis likely amplified selling pressure on affected stocks during an ongoing market downturn.

The financial implications are substantial due to the sheer size of MSCI's operations. Based in New York and listed on the NYSE, MSCI Inc. has a market capitalization of $43.76 billion as of January 2, 2026. The firm curates over 246,000 equity indexes daily. Unlike the NASDAQ, which functions as both an exchange and an index, MSCI focuses solely on index creation, similar to the S&P 500 managed by S&P Dow Jones Indices. MSCI's offerings, such as the MSCI World Index, cover developed markets and provide broad global coverage, influencing trillions in investment decisions.

The consultation period for the proposal remained open for stakeholder feedback until December 31, 2025. A coalition named Bitcoin for Corporations (BFC), which accelerates corporate Bitcoin adoption, mobilized quickly to oppose the change. BFC launched a website detailing what they viewed as flaws in the proposal, including a technical appendix outlining potential negative market impacts. They drafted a formal letter of opposition and gathered over 1,500 signatures within two weeks, delivering the petition to MSCI on December 30. Eight of the 39 companies named in the proposal are members of BFC.

Following initial outreach, BFC held a call with MSCI's head of research and leadership. George Mekhail, BFC's executive director, described the interaction as constructive. "We had a very constructive conversation," Mekhail stated. "I think they were very much still in a listening and learning posture. I think a lot of this just really has to do with a lack of education and understanding of Bitcoin itself, as well as these Bitcoin treasury companies and the significance of their operating businesses." Mekhail noted that the proposal appeared driven by genuine analytical concerns rather than malice, specifically triggered by Metaplanet's recent preferred share issuance rather than Strategy's larger holdings.

A significant point of contention identified by opponents is that MSCI made no distinction between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, treating all digital assets alike. This has fostered a temporary alignment between Bitcoin advocates and the broader crypto sector in opposition. Other opposition includes letters from Strive Asset Management and investor Bill Miller. Industry pushback has been robust, with no major groups publicly supporting the proposal. Strategy's founder, Michael Saylor, has also engaged MSCI directly, issuing a letter and working behind the scenes.

MSCI is scheduled to announce its final decision on January 15, 2026. If the proposal is approved, the exclusions from the indexes would officially take effect on February 1, 2026. George Mekhail of BFC has outlined three potential scenarios for how the situation might resolve:

1. Implementation: The worst-case scenario, which would force companies to sell off Bitcoin holdings to comply with index requirements.
2. Delay: A delay for further review, which Mekhail assesses as the most likely outcome.
3. Withdrawal: The best-case scenario, where MSCI withdraws the proposal entirely.

Market prediction platform Polymarket bettors currently assign a 77% probability that Strategy will be delisted from MSCI by March 31, 2026. The financial fallout, should the exclusion proceed, would disproportionately affect Strategy, which holds the vast majority of the affected Bitcoin treasuries. The decision represents a critical test of Wall Street's adaptation to Bitcoin's role in corporate balance sheets. As Mekhail put it, "The most bullish outcome is that they take it to heart and they withdraw the proposal." A withdrawal would likely boost corporate Bitcoin strategies, while implementation could deter companies from adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset in the future.