Key Facts
- ✓ Jeffrey Ding is an assistant professor of political science at George Washington University, specializing in the intersection of technology and geopolitics.
- ✓ He is the author of the award-winning book 'Technology and the Rise of Great Powers,' which examines how technological advancements influence the rise and fall of nations.
- ✓ Ding founded and curates the ChinAI newsletter, a dedicated resource for tracking and analyzing developments in China's artificial intelligence industry.
- ✓ His central thesis argues that the diffusion of AI technology, rather than the race to achieve AGI, will be the primary determinant of which nation prevails in the global AI competition.
The Real AI Race
The global conversation around artificial intelligence is dominated by a single, dramatic question: who will achieve Artificial General Intelligence first? This race for AGI—machines with human-like cognitive abilities—frames the competition between the United States and China as a sprint toward a technological finish line.
However, according to Jeffrey Ding, an assistant professor of political science at George Washington University, this focus is misplaced. The true determinant of which nation will lead in the 21st century is not the initial innovation, but how widely and effectively that technology spreads. In a world captivated by the promise of AGI, Ding’s perspective offers a crucial, practical correction to the prevailing narrative.
A Scholar's Focus
Ding’s expertise is rooted in a deep academic and practical examination of technology's role in global power dynamics. He is the author of Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, an award-winning book that delves into the historical and contemporary impact of technological advancements on geopolitical competition. His work provides a framework for understanding how nations leverage innovation to achieve dominance.
Beyond his academic publications, Ding actively monitors the current AI landscape through his ChinAI newsletter. This publication tracks and analyzes developments within China’s rapidly evolving artificial intelligence sector. By focusing on real-world progress rather than speculative futures, Ding’s research offers a grounded view of the ongoing technological shift.
His credentials include:
- Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University
- Author of the award-winning book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers
- Founder of the ChinAI newsletter, a resource for tracking China's AI industry
- A leading voice on the practical implications of AI diffusion
"“Diffusion”, not innovation, will determine whether China or the US will prevail in the AI race."
— Jeffrey Ding, Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University
Innovation vs. Diffusion
The core of Ding’s argument rests on a critical distinction: diffusion versus innovation. While innovation—the creation of new AI models and capabilities—captures headlines, diffusion is the process by which that technology is adopted and integrated across an economy and society. History shows that the nation that can most effectively spread a transformative technology often gains the greatest strategic advantage.
“Diffusion”, not innovation, will determine whether China or the US will prevail in the AI race.
This perspective shifts the focus from isolated breakthroughs to systemic implementation. It’s not enough to develop a powerful AI model; the key is deploying it in manufacturing, healthcare, finance, and daily life. The country that masters this widespread adoption will build a more resilient and productive economy, turning technological prowess into tangible national strength.
Geopolitical Stakes
The competition between the United States and China is the primary arena for this technological contest. Both nations are investing heavily in AI, but their approaches and capacities for diffusion may differ significantly. Ding’s analysis suggests that the winner won’t necessarily be the one with the most advanced algorithms, but the one that can best integrate AI into its industrial base and workforce.
This has profound implications for global leadership. A nation that successfully diffuses AI could see accelerated economic growth, enhanced military capabilities, and greater influence on the world stage. The outcome of this race will shape international norms, trade relationships, and the balance of power for decades to come, making the study of diffusion a matter of urgent strategic importance.
A New Framework
Ding’s research provides a new lens for policymakers, business leaders, and analysts to evaluate the AI landscape. Instead of asking which country is closer to AGI, the more pressing questions become:
- Which nation has the infrastructure to support widespread AI deployment?
- How quickly can workforce training and education systems adapt?
- What regulatory frameworks encourage or hinder adoption?
By emphasizing these practical challenges, Ding’s framework moves the conversation from speculative futures to actionable present-day strategies. It underscores that technological leadership is a marathon of sustained implementation, not a sprint to a single breakthrough.
Looking Ahead
The race for artificial intelligence supremacy is far from over, but the metrics for success may be changing. As the world continues to marvel at the potential of AGI, the quiet, steady work of diffusion will likely prove to be the decisive factor. Jeffrey Ding’s insights remind us that history favors those who can turn innovation into widespread, practical advantage.
For observers of the U.S.-China tech rivalry, the focus should now expand beyond laboratory breakthroughs to factory floors, office applications, and public services. The nation that can best weave AI into the fabric of its society will not just lead in technology—it will lead the world.
