HK Primary Home Sales Set for Decade High in 2026

Hong Kong's primary residential home sales in 2026 are forecast to again reach decade-high numbers. The surge is driven by developers clearing inventory and homebuyers focusing more on small, low-cost flats.

Transactions next year were projected to reach about 21,000. Total home sales were expected to climb to around 71,000, up 8 per cent from this year's forecast. A total of 26,479 new flats were expected to be rolled out next year, spread across Kai Tak and the North.

The primary residential home sales market in Hong Kong is poised for a significant milestone in 2026. Forecasts indicate that sales will reach decade-high numbers, marking a substantial recovery and growth phase for the real estate sector.

According to projections, transactions next year were projected to reach about 21,000. This figure represents a robust level of activity in the primary market. Furthermore, total home sales were expected to climb to around 71,000. This total represents an increase of 8 per cent compared to the forecast for the current year.

The anticipated growth is not merely a statistical blip but reflects underlying market fundamentals. The expectation of reaching decade-high numbers suggests a strong resurgence in buyer confidence and market liquidity.

A key driver behind the forecast is the continued effort by developers to clear existing inventory. This strategy is aligning well with current market demands, facilitating smoother transactions and faster sales cycles.

The supply side is also robust, with a significant number of new units entering the market. A total of 26,479 new flats were expected to be rolled out next year. This substantial supply is spread across key development areas, specifically Kai Tak and the North.

The distribution of these new flats across major districts ensures a diverse range of options for potential buyers. This wide distribution helps in catering to different segments of the population and various geographical preferences within the city.

A defining characteristic of the current market is the shift in buyer preferences. Homebuyers are increasingly focusing on small, low-cost flats. This trend is reshaping the types of properties developers are prioritizing and bringing to market.

The demand for smaller units is likely driven by several factors, including affordability and changing lifestyle needs. As property prices remain a critical consideration, smaller flats offer a more accessible entry point into the housing market for many residents.

This focus on affordability is a crucial element in the forecast for 2026. It indicates that the market is being energized by genuine demand from individuals and families seeking practical housing solutions.

The influx of new housing supply is concentrated in specific strategic locations. The rollout of 26,479 new flats is spread across Kai Tak and the North.

Kai Tak continues to be a focal point for urban development and housing projects. As a former airport site, it has been transformed into a major residential and commercial hub, offering modern living spaces and amenities.

The inclusion of the North in the supply forecast highlights the ongoing development in these areas. These regions are critical to Hong Kong's long-term housing strategy, providing necessary land for new residential projects to meet the city's growing population needs.

The outlook for Hong Kong's primary residential home sales in 2026 is overwhelmingly positive. With forecasts pointing to decade-high transaction volumes and a significant increase in total sales, the market is on a clear upward trajectory.

The combination of developers clearing inventory, a strong supply of nearly 27,000 new flats, and a clear shift in buyer preference toward small, affordable units creates a dynamic and active market environment. These factors collectively contribute to a projected 8 per cent growth in total sales, signaling a period of sustained vitality for the city's real estate sector.