Coastguards Shape South China Sea Future

Encounters between ships from China and the Philippines near the Second Thomas Shoal are typically resolved without diplomatic intervention. No shots are fired, no ministerial calls are made, and no carrier deployments occur.

Instead, these incidents are logged, reviewed, and absorbed into routine reporting channels within days. This administrative resolution reveals how stability is actually maintained in the South China Sea.

While debate over these waters often defaults to discussions about navies, deterrence, and great power rivalry, the reality is that coastguards are the primary actors shaping the future of the region.

When ships from China and the Philippines encounter each other near the Second Thomas Shoal, most incidents are resolved without diplomatic intervention. No shots are fired, no ministerial calls are made, and no carrier deployments occur.

Within days, encounters are logged, reviewed, and absorbed into routine reporting channels. That administrative resolution reveals how stability is maintained in the South China Sea.

Debate over these waters still defaults to navies, deterrence, and great power rivalry. However, most activity is actually conducted by coastguards.

These vessels operate in a space between pure military confrontation and diplomatic resolution. Their presence allows for regular encounters that are managed through administrative processes rather than escalating into international incidents.

The focus on naval power and military deterrence often obscures the reality that coastguard vessels are the primary instruments of maritime presence and control in the region.

The process of handling encounters follows a predictable pattern. Incidents are first logged by the vessels involved.

These logs are then reviewed through internal channels.

Finally, the information is absorbed into routine reporting systems.

This entire process typically completes within days, without requiring:

• High-level diplomatic talks
• Military escalation
• International arbitration
• Public statements

The pattern of encounters near the Second Thomas Shoal demonstrates a functional system of maritime management. Rather than relying on traditional military deterrence, stability is maintained through routine administrative procedures.

This approach allows both China and the Philippines to maintain their positions while avoiding escalation. The South China Sea remains a contested region, but the mechanisms for managing that contest are more bureaucratic than military.

The future of the region appears to be shaped less by warships and more by the persistent, managed presence of coastguard vessels operating within established reporting channels.