US Navy Shipbuilding Crisis: No Easy Fixes

The US Navy is struggling to grow its fleet size due to deep-rooted issues in the shipbuilding industry. A recent assessment by defense experts concludes that there is no single fix for the delays and cost overruns plaguing naval construction. As China continues to expand its naval power, the US faces urgent challenges in maintaining and building its own vessels.

Key issues include retiring more ships than are built, a limited number of commercial shipyards, and program mismanagement. These problems have persisted since the end of the Cold War and have worsened over time. The report emphasizes that a coordinated effort is needed across the government and industry to address these systemic failures.

The US Navy's fleet size has fluctuated and shrunken over the years, reaching a low point of 271 ships in 2015. This decline is attributed to problems with new ship classes and a focus on land wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after the Cold War. The fleet peaked at 568 ships during the Reagan administration build-up.

Currently, the Navy operates under a goal of a 355-ship fleet, which was increased to 381 ships in 2023 under the Biden administration. However, these goals have proven difficult to reach without an effective small warship that costs significantly less than Ford-class aircraft carriers or guided-missile destroyers.

Readiness is another major concern. The Navy is currently clocking in at a 68% readiness rate for surface ships and 67% for submarines. The service aims to reach an 80% readiness rate by 2027. The higher tempo of operations puts greater stress on the fleet, as a smaller number of ships must deploy more regularly.

Maintenance delays further strain the fleet. Repairs often take 20% to 100% longer than estimated due to older ships requiring more work and the scope of maintenance being larger than anticipated.

While the US fleet has struggled, China has amassed a massive fleet over the last 25 years. Thanks to state-owned shipbuilders and dual-use commercial and military shipyards, China's fleet reached an estimated 370 battle force ships last year. This growth has alarmed US officials, even if not all Chinese vessels match the advanced capabilities of US ships.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report highlights that China is adopting new technologies to become a dominant naval power. This rapid expansion underscores the urgency for the US to resolve its own shipbuilding delays and cost overruns.

Many of the Navy's problems trace back to the end of the Cold War. Issues include retiring more ships than are built and a slowed, expensive shipbuilding process with only a handful of commercial shipyards available. Program mismanagement has also played a significant role.

According to the report, the US shipbuilding enterprise has failed to consistently produce ships at the demanded scale, speed, and cost. Specific failed projects include:

• Two types of littoral combat ships
• An advanced stealth destroyer (only three will be built)
• The newly canceled Constellation-class frigate

Inconsistent demand signals from Washington leave shipbuilders unable to plan long-term projects. Additionally, the Navy's requirement process and ship designs often result in vessels that are delayed by years and go far over budget. The recently canceled Constellation-class frigate is a prime example; originally supposed to have 80% commonality with its Italian navy version, it ended up with only 15%, causing delays and soaring costs.

On the industry side, the shipbuilding sector has shrunk. Most commercial shipbuilding has shifted to countries like Japan, South Korea, and China, where it is cheaper. The US sector largely serves the Navy and Coast Guard.

Experts agree there is no single policy solution to the overall problem. Resolving any one underlying issue does not guarantee a drastic improvement. Instead, the Navy, Congress, and shipyards must work for years to find the right way forward.

One proposed solution is the continuous production of Navy vessels based on multi-year contracting to stabilize projects and budgets. Another involves increased cooperation with US partners and allies. For instance, South Korean shipyards are already conducting more maintenance on US Navy vessels, and major partnerships aim to modernize American shipbuilding processes.

The Navy is also exploring the use of uncrewed vessels (drone boats) to rapidly add capabilities. These autonomous vessels could handle intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, expanding the Navy's reach while keeping sailors safe. Companies can build these drones fast, though questions remain about their effectiveness in combat roles.

Investments are being made in the industrial base, with a focus on submarines and training the next generation of workers. Modernization efforts, including automation and artificial intelligence, are priorities to drive down costs. However, revitalizing a commercial ship industry capable of wartime conversion remains a significant challenge.