Supreme Court Ruling on Trump Tariffs Could Impact Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading near $90,000, extending a fall after spending several days above $92,000. The cryptocurrency now faces a fresh macro test as markets brace for a U.S. Supreme Court decision that could land Friday on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

The case centers on tariffs imposed in early 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 statute typically used for sanctions during national emergencies. Trump used the law to justify “Liberation Day” tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on global imports, alongside targeted duties on China, Canada, and Mexico tied to fentanyl trafficking concerns.

Lower courts disagreed with the administration's interpretation. Both the U.S. Court of International Trade and a federal appeals court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority, emphasizing that Congress holds primary power over tariffs. The Supreme Court heard arguments in November, with skepticism voiced across ideological lines, and has signaled rulings could be released on Jan. 9.

If the tariffs are struck down, the financial implications could be large. More than $133.5 billion in duties could be subject to refunds, raising questions about timing, fiscal impact, and replacement policies. While Bitcoin’s network is not directly affected, macro shocks in all markets often ripple through risk assets. During prior trade escalations, Bitcoin tended to sell off alongside equities as liquidity tightened and risk appetite faded.

The central issue before the Supreme Court involves the scope of presidential power regarding international trade. The administration argued that persistent trade deficits and national security risks met the threshold for an emergency, justifying the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.

However, the judiciary has previously pushed back. The U.S. Court of International Trade and a federal appeals court both ruled that the President exceeded his authority, noting that the Constitution grants Congress primary power over tariffs. The administration is appealing these decisions.

The timeline for a resolution appears tight. The Supreme Court has signaled that a decision could be released as early as January 9. This has created a tense environment for traders, who are positioning for potential volatility depending on the outcome.

If the Supreme Court rules against the administration, the economic impact could be significant. Reports indicate that more than $133.5 billion in duties could be subject to refunds. This raises immediate questions regarding fiscal impact and the timing of any refunds.

President Trump has claimed the tariffs generated roughly $600 billion in revenue. This figure has shaped market anxiety around potential refunds and future Treasury financing needs. A sudden shift in fiscal policy could alter liquidity conditions across financial markets.

Market participants are also concerned about the broader policy response. A ruling that invalidates the tariffs might force the administration to propose new trade measures or emergency policies, adding to the uncertainty. Prediction markets reflect these concerns, with odds implying a strong chance (76%) that the court will invalidate the tariffs.

Bitcoin traders are watching this situation closely, not because tariffs directly affect Bitcoin’s network, but because macro shocks often ripple through risk assets. The correlation between Bitcoin and equities has been evident during previous trade escalations, where liquidity tightened and risk appetite faded.

Social media warnings have grown louder regarding the potential for a sharp market downturn. One trader referred to the upcoming decision day as potentially "the worst day of 2026," arguing that a negative ruling could force markets to price refund obligations, emergency policy responses, and retaliation risks simultaneously.

For Bitcoin, the near-term risk appears tied to volatility rather than a specific directional move. The asset remains sensitive to shifts in yields, equities, and dollar liquidity. A sharp risk-off move could push prices lower, especially with Bitcoin still below key resistance near $94,000 to $95,000. Conversely, a ruling that reduces uncertainty could produce a brief relief rally.

The Supreme Court's impending decision on President Trump's tariffs represents a significant moment for financial markets. While the legal arguments focus on constitutional authority and trade law, the economic consequences extend far beyond imported goods.

For Bitcoin, the ruling serves as a catalyst for volatility. The cryptocurrency market is currently sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, and a decision that alters the fiscal landscape or liquidity conditions will likely be reflected in asset prices. Whether this results in a crash or a relief rally depends on the specific details of the ruling and the subsequent policy response from the administration.

Investors should prepare for heightened volatility around the decision date. The interplay between trade policy, fiscal health, and risk asset performance remains the key dynamic to watch in the coming days.