Greenland and the Bundeswehr: Why the Arctic matters for Germany

For nearly four years, Europe's security establishment has been overwhelmingly focused on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 fundamentally reshaped the continent's defense priorities, drawing resources, attention, and military assets toward the border regions with Russia.

However, as the conflict in Ukraine enters a new phase, strategic analysts are beginning to look beyond the immediate crisis. A vast, frozen region to the north is quietly emerging as a potential flashpoint for future geopolitical competition. The question now being asked in defense circles is whether the Arctic could become the next major area requiring a robust defensive posture, and if so, whether Germany's military, the Bundeswehr, is equipped to handle the challenge.

The Arctic has long been a region of strategic interest, but its importance has been magnified in recent years. As global temperatures rise, previously inaccessible sea routes are becoming navigable, and untapped natural resources are coming within reach. This has drawn the attention of major powers, including Russia, which has significantly increased its military presence in the region, reopening Soviet-era bases and conducting large-scale exercises.

For Germany and its European allies, this presents a complex new challenge. The Bundeswehr has been heavily committed to operations in Eastern Europe and supporting Ukraine, stretching its resources. The prospect of a new, logistically demanding theater of operations in the High North raises serious questions about capacity and readiness. The Arctic's extreme conditions require specialized equipment, training, and infrastructure that are not easily replicated from other deployments.

The strategic calculus involves several key factors:

• Opening of new shipping lanes like the Northern Sea Route
• Access to vast reserves of oil, gas, and minerals
• Increased military activity by Russia and other nations
• Geographic proximity to NATO's northern members

Germany's military capabilities have been under scrutiny since the invasion of Ukraine, which prompted a historic Zeitenwende or turning point in defense policy. The Bundeswehr is in the midst of a major modernization and expansion effort, but the process is slow and costly. The question of whether it can simultaneously maintain its commitment to Eastern Europe while developing a credible Arctic presence is a subject of intense debate.

Operating in the Arctic is not merely a matter of deploying troops and ships. It requires a comprehensive understanding of a uniquely hostile environment where temperatures can plummet to minus 40 degrees Celsius or lower. Specialized cold-weather gear, ice-capable vessels, and aircraft capable of operating in extreme conditions are essential. The Bundeswehr has some of these capabilities, but scaling them up to meet a potential Arctic security demand would be a significant undertaking.

The Arctic is not just a region; it is a strategic environment that demands a completely different set of capabilities and operational concepts.

Furthermore, any German involvement in Arctic defense would likely be framed within the context of NATO. The alliance has northern members with direct Arctic coastlines, including Norway, Denmark, and Canada. Coordination with these allies would be paramount, but it also raises questions about burden-sharing and the specific role Germany would play.

Any discussion of the Arctic and European security inevitably leads to Greenland. The world's largest island, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, sits at a critical crossroads between North America and Europe. Its strategic location makes it a vital hub for monitoring and controlling the North Atlantic and Arctic regions.

Greenland's importance was highlighted in 2019 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump expressed interest in purchasing the island, a proposal that was swiftly rejected by Danish and Greenlandic authorities. The incident underscored the island's geopolitical value. For NATO, Greenland is a cornerstone of its northern defense strategy, hosting key radar stations and airbases.

Germany's relationship with Greenland is multifaceted. As a close ally of Denmark, Germany has a vested interest in the stability and security of the entire Kingdom. German scientific research in the Arctic is also heavily concentrated in and around Greenland, focusing on climate change and its implications. This scientific presence could provide a foundation for deeper strategic engagement, but it also highlights the delicate balance between scientific cooperation and military competition in the region.

The Arctic is not a lawless frontier; it is governed by a framework of international law, primarily the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This treaty provides the legal basis for maritime claims and resource exploitation, but its application in a rapidly changing Arctic is being tested. Russia, in particular, has submitted extensive claims to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, seeking to expand its sovereign rights over vast areas of the seabed.

For Germany, navigating this complex legal and diplomatic landscape is as important as developing military hardware. As a non-Arctic state, Germany's role is that of a supporter of the rules-based international order. This means working through multilateral forums like the Arctic Council, where eight Arctic states and indigenous peoples' organizations cooperate on issues of sustainable development and environmental protection.

The challenge for the Bundeswehr is to align its potential Arctic capabilities with this diplomatic posture. Any military deployment must be seen as contributing to stability and the rule of law, rather than escalating tensions. This requires careful coordination with allies and a clear strategic purpose that goes beyond simple power projection.

The Arctic is no longer a distant, frozen periphery on the geopolitical map. It is a region of growing strategic importance, where climate change, resource competition, and military ambition are converging. For Germany, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge lies in balancing its existing defense commitments with the need to develop new capabilities for a demanding environment.

The Bundeswehr is at a crossroads. Its capacity to take on a meaningful role in Arctic defense will depend on sustained political will, adequate funding, and a clear strategic vision. The path forward is not about unilateral action but about deepening cooperation with NATO allies and upholding international law. As Europe looks beyond the immediate crisis in Ukraine, the High North will demand a greater share of its attention and resources. The decisions made in the coming years will shape the security landscape of the Arctic for decades to come.